Amidst the recent bullish momentum in the cryptocurrency markets, speculations about the next peak in the Bitcoin price cycle have regained attention. On December 7, VanEck, a prominent investment management firm, shared its predictions for the crypto landscape in 2024, anticipating that Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high (ATH) in the fourth quarter of that year.
In a blog post, VanEck analysts boldly predicted that Bitcoin’s price would surge to a new record high on November 9, 2024, precisely three years from its previous ATH. According to their forecast, this would signify a remarkable climb of over 155%, taking Bitcoin from its current price of approximately $43,600 to exceed $69,000 in Q4, 2024.
The analysts based their optimistic outlook on historical patterns, emphasizing that Bitcoin has historically experienced its most significant price gains in the 12 months following each halving event. Additionally, they argued that political and economic uncertainties would drive increased demand for BTC in the upcoming year.
Highlighting the significance of the 2024 elections, with an estimated 45% of the global population participating in legislative and presidential elections, the analysts predicted that Bitcoin would overcome substantial challenges in the second half of the year, metaphorically climbing a “Presidential-sized wall of worry.”
Looking ahead to November 9, when the USA will have chosen its next President, VanEck speculated on the potential return of Donald Trump to the White House. They suggested that such an outcome might lead to a more favorable regulatory environment, potentially ending the SEC’s adversarial stance towards the crypto sector and providing an additional boost to Bitcoin’s price.
Building on their positive projections, the analysts went even further, envisioning Bitcoin reaching prices as high as $100,000 by December. Notably, several other financial experts on Wall Street have made comparable predictions, reinforcing the consensus that six-figure BTC prices are conceivable by 2025.
VanEck’s predictions align with the historical pattern of Bitcoin’s four-year cycles, where the cryptocurrency’s price continues to rise for approximately a year after surpassing the previous ATH. Analyzing BTC price patterns through logarithmic regression models, experts suggest that if historical trends persist, Bitcoin’s price ceiling could potentially exceed $100,000 in 2025, reaching a range of $190,000 to $200,000 by the end of the bull cycle.